Tuesday, October 19, 2010
Down trend back on track
It's been a long time since my last post. The reason is that wave 2 was not yet over. That was my error. I jumped the gun thinking that it was over without waiting for confirmation that it had broken support. Instead of going down, the market continued going up. A lot of patience was definitely needed. But today, the market turned down in a meaningful way. The S&P index broke support at 1163. The Dow index broke support at 11,000. At this point I believe that wave 3 has just begun. But, once again, time will tell. You should be in cash or be short the market. I am short the market. I am short the indexes, and not short any individual stocks. How long will this downtrend last? It may last into 2012. And it will be followed by a strong uptrend. The important thing is to go with the trend and not go against it. Another confirmation that the trend has changed is that the dollar index has turned up. When the dollar index turns up, everything else goes down including gold, silver, and most of the other commodities. This is additional confirmation. Best to your trading.
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