The wave trend is now down!

It appears that the downtrend has finally started. The highs for this move appear to be in. Caution, however! The market may have a last minute surprise for us!. But this is the stock market game. Intermediate players should be short or in cash. The next question to be answered is how far will it go down. When do we take profits? It will be a long time going down. It should last for a couple of months. It pays to be patient.

Downturn beginning?

The S&P has been down for three days. Is this the beginning of the long awaited downturn? I hope so. Time will tell. Be patient. Remember! The third wave will be violent. We will definitely know where we are. Stay short or be in cash.
We returned home from Ireland today. We had a great vacation and accomplished all of our goals

markets exhausted?

The markets appear to be exhausted! S&P at 1113 on low volume. Other indexes down slightly. Have the bulls reached the top of the mountain and are now sliding down? Time will tell. Meanwhile, 1131 is my line in the sand. Today we drove up to Belfast to visit with two young ladies who came to live with us for a summer during the "troubles" in 1989. They both now have their own families. We had a great visit with them. They are like daughters to me. That's what life is about!

Market remains up

The market remains in a short term uptrend. My line in the sand is 1139 in the S&P. Hopefully it will not reach that point. Today was good in another way. One reason that we are in Ireland this week is to do work on the family tree. We visited the geneologic center today and they gave us clues. We found out where my mother grew up and located the house on google satellite. We set off and found the house where she lived 100 years ago. There wss no one home so we could not go in. But so many other good things are happening that makes this trip memorable. I hope the market behaves itself and starts to go down soon.

Top of the Mountain

yesterday's move up went through the trendline at 1109. The next move should go no more than 1131. If we go over 1131 we will be in an uptrend which will cause us to cover the shorts. I hope we do not have to do this. This should be the end of the A, B, C correction rally. After that we await the 3rd wave. But admittedly, this move has gone farther than I thought it would. It pays to be patient, but who knew it would be this painful.
Today marks the end of the Joe Mooney Music Festival here in Drumshambo. It's been a great week and Theresa's fiddling has really improved. Next week we will be visiting friends and relatives and famous sites. Have a great weekend.

The trend has not changed!

Days like yesterday when the Dow was up over 200 points can be very unnerving. Especially if you are a short term trader. But sharp upmoves are normal in a bear market. However the upmoves are difficult to catch. This trend is still in place unless the Dow goes above 10600 and the S&P over 1130. So it has a long way to go to change the trend. The market is still going down, it's just a matter of time. Meanwhile my walks in Ireland today has brought me to a couple of cemeteries searching for ancestors. I came across a "Famine Cemetery" in Drumshambo. These were for the poor who died from the potato famine in the 1850's, so sad to recall those hard times in Ireland. People today are dying from hunger, it's a great use of your money to help the poor. We are in the money game here, remember it's only a game, and you can't take it with you. Give some away!

yesterday's move

Yesterday, the markets moved a bit higher which was a surprise. Once again, be patient! The markets are positioned still to begin wave 3 down. Check the stochastics and the MACD for the Dow industrials and the Naz;, they all are pointing down. The move is imminent. I have also just finished a book called "The Big Short" by Michael Lewis which clearly explained what happened when the housing market collapsed. Only a very few acted when they saw it coming. They did not follow the herd, everyone on Wall Street thought they were crazy when they started making bets against the decline. At this time, Wall Street is just beginning to fear a stock market meltdown and are looking at ways to protect themselves. My strategy is to short the stock market so that when it falls, I will be prepared. By the way, Ireland is a great place to visit, it's not just the beautiful scenery, but it's beautiful people. They have been very friendly and helpful.

travelling in Ireland

Missed a few posts because of travel in beautiful Ireland. But the markets are rolling over and a new wave, wave three is positioned to drop. The Macd and stochastics are also lined up. Everything is pointing to a down wave. I am short for this phase of the market. Patience is important for any investor as there are up and down days. I tend to be an intermediate term trader, so I only trade two or three times a year. As you know, the trend unfolds in five waves, and the correction in three waves. IBM was helpful for the bear cause today and should put pressure on the tech stocks today. But travelling here in Ireland is great, and thank goodness for the computer and the internet because the news here is without the financial stuff.

Top of the mountain

It appears that the indexes have reached the top of the mountain, that is, stochastics has reached a top and may turn down. And although most of the indexes were up again today, they appeared to be exhausted. The S&P actually turned down. So, I remain short the market. However, no one knows where the market will go. Therefore I must be vigilant and if the markets continue higher and go higher than the previous high, then I will know that I am wrong and will cover the short. I hope I am right and it turns down.

patience is a virtue

The stock market is up again today. I am waiting patiently for the powerful third wave to begin and send the market down strongly. Most of the pundits I heard today say that we are in a bull market. And that it is being fueled by good earnings reports. Certainly, Alcoa and Intel came in with great reports. The trade deficit was terrible but was unnoticed. I continue to be short and await the next big move.

trendwaves: up, up and away?

trendwaves: up, up and away?

up, up and away?

No, it's not up, up and away. What is happening is that last week the market dropped quickly and got oversold. It must alleviate the oversold situation before it can continue its downtrend. This downtrend may start next week. My strategy is to remain short of the indexes. It is expected that the downtrend will be quite steep. On Thursday, the 15th, my daughter and I will be travelling to Ireland on vacation. I will try to remain in touch.

is this wave 4?

I doubt if this is wave 4. The market went up strongly today because it was deeply oversold. You could see this by looking at the stochastics for the S&P index. Go to www.stockcharts.com/ and bring up the $S&P chart. This rise may continue for a few more days. We are still in wave 3. The best strategy imho is to stay short and wait for wave 3 to work its way down. The major trend is down. There will be a good opportunity to go long after wave 3 is near completion.

Fireworks coming?

The trend for the indexes continues to be "down" or bearish. The market is well oversold, that is, it has been down for several days and we can expect a reversal of the trend. However, the market may get more bearish before it reverses. One strategy is to cover your short position and take profits when this final wave down is almost complete. Then, either hold cash and hope to short the market again at higher prices. Another strategy is to cover the short position and immediately buy (go long) an index that will retrace the previous downturn. Hold the long position until it hits a fibonacci retracement number: 0318, 050, or 0618.This should be a three wave rally: A, B, C. Take profit and short again for another five wave decline. At any rate the market is following the Elliot Wave script.
ps. an article on Robert Prector, the author of the Elliot Wave Theory is in today's Sunday Business issue of the New York Times. It's a concise summary of his history on the market. He has made mistakes. No one is perfect. No one can always predict the correct direction of the market. But EWT does work for me most of the time. Always check the charts and label the waves. Remember there is always an alternative way to interpret the market. It's fed by humans after all! Fear and Greed!

$SPX - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

$SPX - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

go to www.stockcharts.com/ and bring up the chart for $SPX.
You will notice how strong the downtrend is for this move of the market. However, at some point in the near future, the market will make a strong move up. Hopefully I will be able to cover my short sales, and buy stocks for this "up" or bullish move. How will I know when this will happen.??? I will be looking for a move down on very heavy volume (panic selling). This usually marks the end of a wave down. The market is down today, and I believe it will be down again tomorrow (before the holiday). But I think it will turn up at some time next week.
Tomorrow there will be a report on jobs. This is usually a market mover. If it is a positive report (I doubt it!)the market would move up strongly. If it is negative, it will cause the market to go down a lot. This report comes out at 8:30 am. It should be interesting.