My philosophy of my trading is based on the Elliot Wave Theory. Simply put, the main trend whether down or up is composed of five waves. When the market corrects itself, it does so in three waves.
Right now we are in a "down" or bear market. At this point we are in the third wave. This can be seen by going to www.stockcharts.com/ and clicking on $SPX. This is the chart for the S&P index.
Today we went through support at 1040 decisively. We ended at 1030. So the downtrend continues. The next support level is at about 1000. So, at that point the market may reverse and retrace to about 1050+. I am not concerned about this and will continue to hold short because eventually, the S&P will go below 600.
Patience is really a virtue when trading as long as you are within the trend. Of course, if you are outside of the trend, you must cover your short. So you must be vigilant.
PS. The Dow Theory gave a sell signal on Wednesday. Many traders follow this theory, in short, when the Dow Industrials and the Dow Transports confirm their trends, it gives a signal. (This has worked for a long time.)
Wednesday, June 30, 2010
Tuesday, June 29, 2010
Support broken at 1040
Wow! what a day for the markets. The S&P broke support at 1040. The market is in the early stages of the third wave. The downtrend has a high probability of continuing its downtrend. The next support level is around 900. As mentioned previously, the third wave is the most violent but if you are trading with the trend you can make a lot of money. The 4th wave will be an "up" wave but you have to be alert to be able to trade it. It will also be powerful because it will cause a lot of shortsellers to cover their shorts. You can look at the S&P chart at www.stockcharts.com/ Look at the daily chart and it clearly shows the direction of the market.
I continue to be short the market.
Most people buy a stock and hold on to it. I don't trade a particular stock but choose to buy and sell indexes, such as the
Dow, S&P, Nasdaq, and the Russell. You can short these indexes. The thing to remember about the Market is that it is a game (casino) and you must know how to play it. The guys on Wall Street know how and you must learn how to play in order to make money. Learn the rules!
I continue to be short the market.
Most people buy a stock and hold on to it. I don't trade a particular stock but choose to buy and sell indexes, such as the
Dow, S&P, Nasdaq, and the Russell. You can short these indexes. The thing to remember about the Market is that it is a game (casino) and you must know how to play it. The guys on Wall Street know how and you must learn how to play in order to make money. Learn the rules!
Monday, June 28, 2010
sentiment and trend
Sentiment expresses the mood of society. When the mood of the country is positive, the stock market goes up. When the mood is negative, the market goes down. What is the sentiment today: unwinnable wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, millions out of work, huge deficits, environmental disaster in the Gulf, workers' pay and benefits being cut. With this kind of sentiment, can the stock market go up?
Krugman, an influential opinion maker writes in the NYTimes today about a Third Depression worse than anything experienced before. If sentiment does determine the trend of the market, it must surely be going down. But this is one man's opinion. Keep in mind that there is also a saying that "the market climbs a wall of worry." There is always an opposite opinion!
The stock market continued its downtrend today, although it was up for most of the day. The Dow, S&P, Nasdaq, and the Russell all ended down.
The markets remain in Wave 3 down.
I trade only indexes, not individual stocks.
Krugman, an influential opinion maker writes in the NYTimes today about a Third Depression worse than anything experienced before. If sentiment does determine the trend of the market, it must surely be going down. But this is one man's opinion. Keep in mind that there is also a saying that "the market climbs a wall of worry." There is always an opposite opinion!
The stock market continued its downtrend today, although it was up for most of the day. The Dow, S&P, Nasdaq, and the Russell all ended down.
The markets remain in Wave 3 down.
I trade only indexes, not individual stocks.
Sunday, June 27, 2010
downtrending
The stock market remains in a downtrend. We have recently completed wave 2...we have started wave 3. Keep in mind that the third wave is longer than wave 1. It is also a violent wave. Most money is made trading the third wave. The third wave will have 5 waves. The problem is always the same: "where are we?" Check the SP chart which indicates a strong downtrend confirmed by RS and MACD.
Initial resistance will be at 1040. We can expect a bounce at 1040. but the trend will eventually continue down past 1040. If history repeats, SP will go below 600, the previous low of wave 1.
remember there is always an alternate, so be on the lookout for a move that would invalidate the above scenario.
my position at this point is fully "short."
Initial resistance will be at 1040. We can expect a bounce at 1040. but the trend will eventually continue down past 1040. If history repeats, SP will go below 600, the previous low of wave 1.
remember there is always an alternate, so be on the lookout for a move that would invalidate the above scenario.
my position at this point is fully "short."
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